The NZ economic outlook for 2026

Trading has been challenging in 2025. But the economic outlook for New Zealand small businesses does look brighter as we head into the new year.

“The business environment has remained challenging in 2025, defying expectations of a steady improvement in economic growth”

Westpac’s NZ Economic Overview October 2025 had some sobering insights into the state of the NZ economy. But brighter times are on the horizon for 2026.

“In the short term, businesses, sectors and regions more directly tied to the primary sector will continue to enjoy better times. It’s likely the first fruits of the Government’s Investment Boost policy will be borne there, given cashflows are stronger in those sectors.”

The report also expects:

- The strength in the economy to broaden and strengthen as a result of falls in borrowing costs.

- Better labour market conditions to bolster consumer confidence and spending

- Optimism in the market to translate into more investment and hiring in the here and now.

How does this impact your business?

Times have been tough and trading conditions are challenging. But as we begin 2026, there is a mood of quiet confidence among New Zealand small businesses.

The key now is to translate this confidence into increased sales, stable revenues and a more strategic focus on growth over the next 12 months.